Paul aka Aesop
Youre funny :)
<the nature of monster>
A slowdown in us economy, due to labor shortage(and you bet there is one,(anecdotally)my company is resorting to paying us upto $4000 if we can find any half-decent engineer friends). This is a short term problem.
Increased competition/decreased consumption from Asia will fix the problem above, in the next few months, but at the cost of lost profits, malaise etc.
Problem is that so many of the companies are trading at such a high
multiple(historically) that the market will have to come down
significantly.
But the real problem is that with 8 years of bull market, even the
barbers and bellboys are fully invested(if not margined in the stock
market). Not to mention the people who are refinancing their tents
and huts to buy into the "bull market of the century". When the down
turn comes, these people will buy the dips with all of their resources, like they have been doing for the past 3 years(successfully). Things will smell if the market keeps dipping.
With all this lost wealth, there might be a "Japan like" prolonged
stagnation(where they too used to buy the dips in late '80s).
The growth, productivity improvements, unemployment and interest rate
are all volatile, dynamic variables. I think of present valuations
as a boulder balanced on a needle. It needs only a bird to crap
on it before it topples!
I really hope none of this happens, but, I can't help marvelling at the complacency of people on this thread. Its scary!
As an example:
Message 3616016
Message 3615947
(and there's more where that came from!) :> |
