George - This is how I *see* the OA market.
The table assumes there are 16 million O/A patients with
O/A STAGES (1-4) and that 7 million are potentially
treatable (stages 1-3) with Synvisc, Orthovisc, or Hyalgan.
Below are the revenues generated for BOTH the DISTRIBUTOR
and MANUFACTUER if just 275,000 first time users are treated
out of this pool of 16 million.
I use Synvisc for this analysis because BIOX is what I am
currently long in.
Note:There are 2 markets analyzed below - USA and Canada.
Regards,
John McCarthy
AHP RPR
USA Canada
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A |Total O/A Population Count 16,000,000 2,100,000
B |Synvisc Potential Population 7,000,000 920,000
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C=B/A |% of Total O/A Population 44.0 44.0
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D 1st Time User - Count 275,000 15,000
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E=D/B Synvisc Penetration - % 3.93 1.63
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F Distributor Selling Price $495.00 $400.00
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Ameican Home Products
G=F*E Distributor Gross Revenues $136,125,000 $6,000,000
=========== ==========
H=D/12 Monthly Patient Treatments 22,917 1,250
=========== ==========
Given BIOX % of Distributor Revenue(s) 35% 35%
=========== ==========
BIOX Annual Gross Revenues $ 47,643,750 2,100,000
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