Skeet, a better post. This we can work with.
1. You are correct, IMO, that Dell's valuation in particular assumes continued rapid growth, but the counter from a Dell bull might be something along the lines of "market leadership deserves a premium multiple - look at KO". Some premium just for their track record, I'll grant, and people have been saying for years now that they can't possibly keep growing at this pace. Perhaps Dell will have to move sideways for a while like Home Depot did. CPQ has the issue of integrating DEC, so who knows how the market will treat them from here. HWP won't trade just on the merits of its PC biz. They want to be #1 in PCs though, so consider the possibility that HWP might want to get there in a hurry by buying somebody (guess who would make the most sense). In the meantime, HWP is focused on becoming more of a software and services business (higher margins, higher valuations). Perhaps GTW doesn't gain much market share, but they are much more likely to hold on to what they have, IMO, than Micron, Packard Bell (who owns them now, BTW?), and the many other players. Remember also that some of the Japanese players have left the desktop biz.
2. I don't know what you base your management opinion on, but as far as the losses last year, that's all pretty well understood and is history. Everyone else in the industry, except of course Dell, has had some kind of disappointment. CPQ is having problems now as you know (will they evaporate as well?).
3. My GTW history class was an 8AM class. I'm afraid I missed it the day of the lion and lamb lecture. Please explain.
4. Wouldn't Intel's customers be expected to benefit vis-…-vis Intel if demand for Intel's product is slowing?
5. Any Y2K slowdown in box buying would only effect this year and part of next. After that, you should see strong sales from pent-up demand.
6. PC prices have been dropping since the things were first introduced. And people have been predicting that these declining prices would kill profitability for almost as long. BTW, what basis do you have for suggesting that they are padding profits now at the cost of a "one time charge in the future"? |
