TSO: Carl Johnson changing his tune, getting more bearish about semi-equips in general but LIKES your DPMI:
techweb.com
and what Briefing had to say about another paradigm shift:
PC Industry: It's not a stretch to connect the warning from Compaq's CFO with
Intel's warning and conclude that something is amiss in the PC industry. Nobody
wants to say it, but perhaps Kurlak is right: unit volume is not increasing enough to
offset price declines.
Tech Sector: If Intel, semis, and PCs are all in trouble, isn't the entire tech sector in
for a beating? On Thursday, the answer will almost certainly be yes. Beyond the
kneejerk response, however, lies another possibility. Perhaps we are seeing
evidence of the much discussed paradigm shift in tech -- away from processor
speed and toward bandwidth. If that's the case, networkers and telecoms should
fare much better than semis and PCs.
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Unfortunately in both cases note the unit volume slowdown - if true time to say que sera sera and say adios to the semis. My adios to the semi-equips is already done. At some point people are going to say dump 'em all. We have AMD disappointment, NSM(?), TXN(likely), INTC, MOT (now) - pretty much a very very broad spectrum of companies. Also saw some rumbles in the jungle about weakness in analog(?) though this would be a tad more difficult for me to believe.
Also note that Corrigan was right on. The commodity people are being smashed (MOT included in this "commodity" group) but no warnings (YET) from the ALTR's and LSI's of the world, i.e., the networking oriented and more specialized companies. There is a chance that networking oriented companies have a chance but still I do suspect that with no leadership all the semis will eventually crumble. [Unless a lot of this is already priced into the stocks!!!!] |
