when does GE report?
to: +ZSCRAPER (5740 )
From: +LastShadow
Thursday, Mar 5 1998 9:28PM EST
Reply # of 5743
The Market:
I would caution all entries tomorrow, as the 2-2.5% correction for the DJIA,
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Market (NCM) Indices are all still headed
down.
In fact, the NCM shows a Bearish Hammer candle, and the S&P is a Bearish
Big Candle. The DJIA is behind these in downward momentum, but should
get there tomorrow. The net forecasted a bottom range of 7800-8000 for the DJIA
and 1600-1650 for the NASDAQ. This is a preliminary look ahead based on the
markets actions during last April, October and year end, and is by no means
statistically significant at this moment. Each correction is unique, and the net
requires a few more days of data to learn the present one. In any case, this is
not a minor 'pullback'.
The combined effect of moving 6 mutual funds to a fixed income account was a savings
approximately 1% of the total value. Funds are slower to recover, though, and it
is entirely possible that they may not be moved back to stock funds for 1-2 months.
I would not be surprised to see the mutuals lose half the year-to-date gain before
reversing. I would be wary of any false reversals tomorrow. The market is still
too overbought right now.
So the question is what to buy? Jenna's post on the oil, retail, consumer goods stock is
excellent advice. During market corrections, people still buy food, gas, health, clothing
and
personal items, and those stocks are fairly safe bets. Look at what a particular stock
did in the late October tanking. Espcially if earnings are due. If they were due then and
are
due out soon, thats where the big money will be moving. Be wary of mergers, IPO's
and
stocks whose fundamental data is inflated by acquisitons in the last quarter.
If your stock opened down today but recovered close to yesterday's median price or
above, its
probably worth holding onto. However, corrctions trickle to other sectors and so if it
is iffy fundamentally, you might consdering taking whatever profit you may have. Also
thinly traded stocks that had no drops at open are also safe bets for the moment.
The first down wave may end tomorrow, and monday may be the first day of the
interim up
wave that could last through Wednesday. I hope the third wave to start next Thrusday.
As for shorting, flks who shorted INTC this morning lost $2 buy day end. If yu really
want
to short something, I would recommend the DJIA March futures. But the bottom line is
this - if you are really good enough to short now, you don't need my opinion...or
anyone else's.
lastshado |
