Point of maximum pain . . .
Bundashus, I think you beat me to it. I logged on here to post that I think we're nearing the end of this "goring." The small investors are starting to give up. I know a few people who have sold everything recently--these guys had more than 5000 shares each. Others I know personally or who I know from the various message boards have indicated that they are close to dumping as well. (Note: this does not include any frequent posters to this board.)
Yet after a month of not really paying attention to GVIL I'm starting to get interested again. I see a 25% downside from here but a 150% upside or more. To me it is no longer about getting to the promised land of $4-$6 but instead to get a nice value of $2.50 again, which I project will be about 50% of annual sales.
Since we are now in March I see some things that can get us up there soon, within ten weeks. Some of these factors that could be worth a pop:
1. Shipping v.90 modems. Remember the surge last May when GVIL shipped their first 56k modems? Something similar could happen again. The thinking would be that the bungled transition hurt all the companies last year but that the new standard is the magic bullet for better results.
2. Beating estimates decisively in the April earnings report. I have no idea how the quarter is going, but will offer two signs of hope. One, the estimate is very low once again, at -.16. Two, the Jan.-March quarter was the strongest in 1997 and had the same situation going on, a liquidation of inventory. So it could happen again. I also have a feeling that GVIL is serious about leaving the Windows side of the game, at least temporarily. If they do this it must be because it was a serious drag on earnings. By getting rid of the serious commodity business, ie Windows modems, and sticking to good margins, ie Macs and other high end communications products, GVIL will be better off.
3. The Wall Street deal. Historically, having a PB OEM deal with Apple has been great for GVIL. I assume that this time will be the same. These new models will be very popular because they are a lot better in price/performance than the G3 notebook. And this announcement is not too far on the horizon.
4. Apple seems to be making a move, both as a company and as a stock. Better sales and a better acceptance by the financial community can only help GVIL. The thought on the AAPL board is that AAPL will be in the high twenties by April due to sustained profitability and a likely CEO announcement.
5. Artemis. This rumored $999 Mac with 200 mhz PII-beating G3 and 15" built-in screen is due in April or May. I'd like the thoughts of this board as to whether it would likely have a built-in Apple (GVIL) modem. It seems that the $999 PCs all have modems. Regardless, this computer will make a big splash for Apple in the consumer space and drive modem sales.
These points plus the low price of GVIL, are starting to make a further investment look more compelling to me. I bought some more today at 15/16. I figure I can wait two months to see what develops.
Good luck and do your own due diligence.
Marc
PS--I didn't even include the possibility of a buyout or other new products, like the rumored ISDN router. |
