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Biotech / Medical : Antex Biologics (ANTX)

ANTX 1.120

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Nov 18 3:58 PM EST

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To: F. Jay Abella, III who wrote (745)	3/6/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: John R Resseger	Read Replies (1) of 1476

Just published March 5th an Updated analysis Of Antex Biologics. Westergaard-Abella BioMedTech Online westergaard.com. The following is an excerpt from the above. Jay I have posed a question at the bottom. VALUATION (only for the human vaccines) 1.Campylobacter vaccine for diarrhea and gastroenteritis - Phase II 2.H Influenzae vaccine for otitis media, pneumonia, meningitis - Phase I 3.H pylori vaccine for gastritis, peptic ulcers, gastric carcinoma - Phase I 4.Shigella, Moraxella, Chlamydia, Pneumococcus and Neisseria vaccines are in nonclinical trials. Campylobacter - 2mm cases per year at a cost of $20 (assumed) = $40mm total US market. Penetration of 10% first year times 0.4 for Phase II trial = $1.6mm contribution to market capitalization. H. influenzae vaccine for otitis media. Assume $20 treatment for 5mm cases per year = $100mm total market. Multiply $100mm times 10% penetration times 0.3 for phase I trial = $3.0mm contribution to market cap. H. Pylori vaccine - assume 5mm new cases at $75 per treatment - market potential is $375mm per year (very conservative). Multiply by 0.3 for Phase I trial and 10% market penetration = $22.5mm contribution to market cap. Five nonclinical programs contributing $5mm toward market cap each = $25mm. Technology value = $52.1mm Patents on compounds in clinical trials = $1.5mm Plus current assets minus long term debt = $6.3mm TOTAL = $59.9mm Management Factor Accumulated Deficit = $12.06mm Revenues since inception = $7.86mm Factor = 7.86/12.06 = 0.65 (excellent by industry standards!!!) ADJUSTED MARKET CAPITALIZATION = [59.9*0.65] + 59.9 = $98.8mm Fully diluted shares outstanding = 29.188mm Share price = $3.38 Jay, I find it curious that the vaccines in preclinical testing get a $5M valuation each yet Campylobactor which is near the end of Phase 2 Human trials is valued at $3M

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