Steve,
Well, I think you beat my all time longest post. I think you've added a number of good comments. Let me take a moment to evaluate some of them.
I SHOULD have said: "..if your enterprise plans continue to require the toll quality voice currently provided by the PSTN, it will probably be looking to an ITU-T compliant integrated ATM solution..."
Only if it reduces recurring costs and is easy to manage. Otherwise these companies will continue to use discrete voice and IP networks. Remember, most enterprises are using sub T1 lines. They'll need to justify T1 local loops.
The current Cisco datacom solution seems to be that it hopes to get into the enterprise (and telco) WAN, with a multiple network (data overlay) approach, and using (NON-telco toll quality) voice compression with the Ardent MC3810 gateway and Stratacom circuit emulation, and a 2500 router with a MP860 and some TI general purpose DSPs.
Steve, you sound well informed. The 3810 is only one solution however and it does offer router (no 2500 needed) and it interworks with voice on the backbone (no CES required). This solution is TOLL quality in as much as the YURI product is. However, the 3810 also give customers the opportunity to compress the voice (G.729) thereby using less bandwidth AND the 3810 can be used on frame relay networks as well as ATM. So, enterprises that can't justify T1 lines can start with the 3810 today and migrate to T1 ATM in the future. In fact, sites with lots of bandwidth needs can use a T1 ATM 3810 (or OC3/T3 STRM switch) and have some site running on 56K frame relay...it all interworks. Finally, I should point out that outside of the US and Europe E1 lines are the exception...most sites are happy to get 64K.
overlay networks are expensive to develop, install and maintain
You'll need to elaborate on this. I think your definitition of an overlay network is different than mine. I think what you're saying is that ATM CPE on an ATM network makes more sense than an IP edge on an ATM network...right? If this is what you're saying, in general I agree. However ATM isn't right for most people because they can't get the lines, can't afford them, or bandwidth is not avaiable. Add to this the fact that IP on ATM is already a paradigm being developed by most carriers and I've gotta believe that both will happen. BUT, if multiservice on IP works it will have a huge impact on ATM access. IT managers would rather use IP given all else being equal.
As a result, I suspect that Lucent, Nortel or Ericcson are more likely to acquire YURI than Cisco. So which network approach will win in the telco and enterprise WAN? The telecom or datacom folks?
We agree on this
We will see, but I think Cisco stands a much better chance with their approach of getting the MCNS business than getting the telco business
Curious comment. Why do you think Cisco isn't in the telco?
As far as ATM CPE competitors in the WAN and LAN market, I am not aware of a company with the quality of ATM edge products out there. Though I presume they may well emerge (and I would likely invest in them).
Go back an look at some of those URL's I posted. Beside the 3810, Motorola just updated their Vangaurd product, Nortel's MAC's, Nuera, Hypercom, RAD, Mariposa, Newbridge, 3Com's TotolControl...etc. etc..
And as far as the major reason for the unbelievable short psotion - Split Rock dependence - what do you think a major US telco contract to YURI (say through BAY and/or Lucent) in the next month or 3 would do to those 3+ shares that have bet that YURI has a limited market and future?
Don't know for sure. They had AT&T, they didn't do much. Much of BAY's revenues came from SplitRock but we don't know how much. I believe this was in one of the 1o-Q's... in fact the recent Ericsson release even stated that some of thier original business would also come from SplitRock. The real challenge these vendors will have is pricing... they'll have high costs and be faced with competing against lower cost manufacturers (mentioned above). That will be an uphill challenge. Don't you think?
Once again, go long through Q2...by then competitors and competing technoloiges will soften this market and eat at YURI's lead. If the management is smart they'll go to LU or Ericsson and sell. I don't think NT will be interested...but who knows.!
Gary |
