This is right, Flair. My take is that MSFT may be
unfairly using current "near monopoly" position
to leverage NT and CE, but that Gates is correct
that if they fritter away a two year dev cycle, they
can lose that monopoly. For example, although AAPL
is twice down, it is not out. If their new server OS
were adopted by some Intel platform OEMs, and they
successfully marketed a vertically integrated desktop
to server solution, MSFT may not lose dominance, but
could lose enough marketshare to no longer qualify as
a monopoly. The irony in this process, is that the
DOJ proceedings will be so drawn out, that by the time
they are completed, a scenario such as this could have
already have played out making the DOJ action moot.
However, there is a warning to MSFT investors in all
of this. Either MSFT is a monopoly, and it WILL be
regulated. Or MSFT is not a monopoly, and can be
attacked by competitors. In either case, these are not
the situations the most optimistic MSFT longs dream about.
Many posting here seem to feel MSFT can maintain its
market dominance and aggressive marketing practices, without
modification, and not be affected by DOJ. Not going to
happen. Either DOJ will get some, though partial, satis-
faction, or MSFT will yield in the marketplace because of
a competitor. Either situation is less than ideal for
some of the more enthusiastic promoters of the stock.
JMO. |
