TO ALL:
If you like riding momentum stocks, ride those with real earnings in real emerging trends ... best bets, the helpdesk/customer service sector ... pick Vantive, Clarify, Scopus, Remedy ... sooner all later, all these momentum plays will correct but the once who will bounce back better are the ones with real earnings which attract institutional money ...
Now, about Zitel, even their management admits the software won't be available until early 1997, and like all other software, Fortune 500 companies do not generally want to be guinea pigs ... so even if the software is real slick, chances are it will not catch on until late 1997 at the earliest ... by this time, any company who is just starting their Y2k project is already very late ... I don't believe any big corporation will dare be that late, so even if Zitel gets some business their way, it will most likely be small-to-medium size companies ...
Another point, a lot of Y2K consulting firms already have conversion tools similar to what they are just beta testing ...
If I have to pick one Y2k pure play, it will be VIASOFT ... their software is being used by a lot of consulting companies for assessing the Y2k project ..
Now, some are saying, they don't care about what the company does in 1999/2000 ... but my point is exactly that even if Zitel's software is a hit, it only has at most a couple of years usefullness ... growth stocks trade in high multiples because of perceived year over year accelerating growth ... |
