If in fact Dell is taking business away from Compaq, or HWP for that matter, the problem for Dell will be that this model can be duplicated in a weekend with a few programmers.
I do believe that Dell is putting a dent in the market share from Compaq and HWP and IBM, but I do believe that all of those mentioned companies have the pockets to crush Dell if they want to. They all have the BTO model implemented, until Intel comes out the their new chip MERCED, and Windows 98 ships for real, we are going to see a dramatic slow down in the growth rates of box markers period.
Perception and reality, we all know that Wallstreet usually trades on expectations, not necessarily facts or even reality. If Wallstreet "believes" that the company is invincible, it will trade invincible until after the fact. I do admit with all of the turmoil the past week one could make a great case that Dell should be trading below the break (up) of 111 bucks a share. For Dell to "fall" from 138 to 132 is not bad in my opinion. Dell looks to be holding it's own, until facts or perceptions change for this company. Making predictions are very hard (in terms of timing) in this business, but I love the comment someone said earlier that Dell will either go to 200 (Pre split) at this rate or become an Oxford Health, meaning that after the fact of the bad news comes out, people will look back and say, "why didn't they tell us this was happening". Maybe Mike and the gang are looking to unload some shares during their quiet period and they are trying to keep the price up there, who knows, I'm just being a little sarcastic. |
