Top Stories: Worries About Bay's
Current Quarter Persist
By Kevin Petrie
Staff Reporter
3/6/98 6:28 PM ET
Bay Networks (BAY:NYSE) fell Friday afternoon as
investors fretted about the recovering networker's ability to
finesse a product transition this quarter.
After rising with the broader market early in the day, Bay's
gains were eroded away in the afternoon. Bay ended the day
down 5/16 at 29 9/16, after hitting an intraday high of 31 1/8
shortly before noon. Bay's fall stood in sharp contrast to the
overall market's strength, which pulled up most of Bay's
peers. For instance, Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) climbed 2 1/2 to
64 3/8 and Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq) was up 2 9/16 to 35
1/16.
Short-term questions are nagging Bay. While CEO Dave
House, an Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) alumnus, has orchestrated a
turnaround in the last year and a half, he has been
circumspect about prospects for Bay's fiscal third quarter
ending March 31. Sales of Bay's new Accelar and
BayStack products might not pick up the slack for older
units in time to meet earnings estimates for this quarter.
Analysts expect the company will earn 28 cents a share in
the period.
Those fears were heightened after CFO David Rynne,
speaking at a Goldman Sachs gathering Wednesday, said
the company was "hoping for a back-end loaded quarter,"
according to analyst Jon Sederquist at Phoenix
Investments. Sederquist figures Bay might be stretched to
meet sales goals in the March quarter. Sederquist's firm
hasn't owned shares of Bay recently.
A Bay spokesman declined comment. But a trader says the
talk turned negative on Bay on Friday.
"People are worried about this quarter" because some
corporate customers might delay network purchases until
next quarter, said the trader, who asked not to be named.
Rumors also circulated Friday that Bay would issue a profit
warning, although it seems unlikely that the company would
warn so early in its busiest month.
However, the June quarter still looks strong, the trader said.
Analyst Joe Bellace at Merrill Lynch failed to nurse Bay's
fortunes Friday. He reiterated his accumulate rating on the
stock in a morning research note, estimating that Bay will
earn 27 cents per share this quarter, which is one penny
short of the First Call consensus.
Bellace predicts the new Accelar line of routing switches for
corporations will generate $40 million to $60 million in the
period, "with minimal cannibalization of the existing product
line" -- a bullish stance, given the current worries of
investors. Price cuts might exert pressure on gross margins,
he wrote. Bellace estimates that about 50% of quarterly
revenue will be crammed into March. He could not be
reached for comment.
While Bay has been improving in the past 18 months, it
trails industry leader Cisco. For instance, Bay's market cap
is $6.3 billion, while Cisco's is $62.2 billion. |
