Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4251)	3/6/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (3) of 18691

Watch Japan, China & Hong Kong. The U.S. (Greenspan & Rubin) know how serious this is and are helpless to stop it. When Asia starts to dump $ 500 computers and $ 12K cars that will cut into domestic consumption of US goods. This is in addition to the drop in demand for our exports from Asia. We barely are balancing the budget now with 4.6% unemployment, low interest rates and a $ 90 B Capital Gains windfall. A slow down causing a 2% rise in unemployment (2.4M people) will cause the Capital Gains to evaporate (this assumes the market does not sell off) tax receipts decrease by at least $ 140 B and govt outlays (unemployment benefits, welfare)increase by $ 20B. Now your looking at a deficit of $ 250B. Assuming this causes a rise in rates of 50 BP on the $ 5 Trillion of National debt we're now looking at another $ 25B or a total of $ 275B. First INTC then MOT now CPQ. The sheep are so conditioned I don't think the final blowoff will come until October. Always seems like a good time. detnews.com:80/1998/biz/9803/05/03050078.htm canoe2.canoe.ca biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com

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