Thanks Quad for the vote of confidence and confidentiality. I would sure like to get past this "False Name" talk as well and have us all focus on trying to better understand Novell's future - for the good of us the stock-holders or potential stock-holders.
It might shock Jim that I am currently not a Novell stock-holder. The time when I really wasn't able get into the stock was when it reached its all time low early last year (under $6).
The future of Novell and the direction of the stock price is made up of several factors - company structure, leadership, quality of product, industry politics, competition, timing, financial status, unrelated events, etc., etc. I get the impression that we each have experience in analyzing a few of these many factors.
Therefore, instead of debating on weather technology or financials or trading trends (or the Author's name) are the reason for Novell's recent rise, we should provide input to areas that we have experience on and focus our debates on these inputs.
Enough with the false names.
Here's my gut feel, unscientific guess on the Novell's future.
Novell's stock price reacts to Microsft's situation in the same way Gold reacts to the current global situation/stability. If the wolves that are hounding Microsoft right now (Federal, State, Japanese Governments, competitors like NetScape and Sun, industry, media, and their own new product delivery dates slipping) begin to hurt Microsoft then I predict Novell's stock will respond positively - as long as Novell continues to meet all their anticipated delivery dates (NetWare 5, ZENWorks, Orion, etc.). If Microsoft can shake off these wolves then Novell's stock price might stale out.
It is not too likely that Microsoft's slipped delivery dates can be recovered - but Microsoft loyalists may continue to forgive Microsoft for some of these delays. What is certain is that Microsoft needs NT5 in order to effectively penetrate the large enterprise solutions required by the fortune 500 companies (and that Novell has a good grasp on). If they don't get NT5 out ASAP, the current Novell 3.x fence-sitters are going to fall in love with NetWare 5 enough that they will make their commitment to stay with Novell.
My guess - Novell will have from Q3-Q4 of 98 to Q1 of 99 to pull the Novell fence-sitters off the fence and potentially build other fortune 500 companies to NetWare 5. After that the NT 5 production release will close Novell's jump on committing market share.
The other major factor (wolve) on Microsoft's door is all the litigation against them from everywhere. I predict that this is Microsoft's biggest threat by far! Much of the industry believes that Microsoft's behavior on how it uses its monopolies will be its downfall. Several industry players want Microsoft put back in its place and play fair. A response to this is to build alliances and to litigate against Microsoft. "Pure JAVA" is a perfect example of the industry rallying together to put Microsoft in its place. The Sun lawsuit and the Internet Browser Anti-trust battle with several governments are the litigations. These litigations are going to grow over the course of this year to hit other areas within Microsoft.
My prediction is that Microsoft won't come out of the current and up-coming law-suits and litigations unscathed. The industry and even public would not accept no punishment. If the government wins the internet browser and some of the other future battles, then this would DRAMATICALLY effect Microsoft's product rollout, including Win98 and NT 5. As for "Pure JAVA", I think even Microsoft is not big enough to fight/destoy the flag-bearer for the industry rally cry. Therefore, platform independence (no need to require Win98 or NT) will become more viable. NetWare 5 will have a server based JAVA platform.
I certainly don't count Microsoft out at all! It will still be a big player, but, Novell will have the holes in the market to maintain a major industry player and even regain some of its glory (not all - thats for sure).
If one looks at what Microsoft is going through right now, it so much resembles what IBM went through in the early 80's and what AT&T went through. When you get on a very tall pedestal, people want to knock you off of it. I believe Microsoft's time has begun.
Pure Gut Feel Guess on Novell price based on technology and industry situations (please no one bet the farm on these predictions):
By April: $9
By June: $11
By August: $13-$16
By October: $18-$23
I now stand down and prepare to be slammed.
Toysoldier |
