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Biotech / Medical : Antex Biologics (ANTX)

ANTX 1.120

0.0%

Nov 18 3:58 PM EST

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To: John R Resseger who wrote (749)	3/7/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: F. Jay Abella, III	Read Replies (1) of 1476

Good question: <<Jay, I find it curious that the vaccines in preclinical testing get a $5M valuation each yet Campylobactor which is near the end of Phase 2 Human trials is valued at $3M>>> I may have underestimated the size of the market - but I think its about $40mm first year (however, high margins) - you have to discount this massively because there is a fine balance between risk and reward as products move through development while remaining unapproved. To spell it out, the model correctly punishes companies who are developing 40mm products (as opposed to 250mm products). The 1.6mm is boosted by the fact that ANTX is not paying for the majority of the development costs (thus the multiplication by the management factor). So it sort of balances out. Its not perfect, but I manitain that it is the best biotech valuation estimator available. FJA PS - I am very interested in fine tuning the model. The main flaws here are potential market size and cost per unit sale.

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