Shane, in absolutely the most complimentary sense of the phrase, you are definitely one heavy duty web researcher. For a guy who says he doesn't know boo-diddily about cdma/gsm, you are digging up some great stuff. I tossed your last one into the SI QCOM shark tank: we'll see what the boys have to say.
Your prior multi-post re: the state of the state in semis, PC's, and SOC's strikes me as being a very fair summary of a confusing situation. BTW, I think we are at an "infection" as well as an "inflection" point, so I won't bother to correct your spelling. :)
I take it your thesis is in essence that the semi industry is finally rationalizing itself, i.e., supply capacity is being reduced in the face of what is obviously weaker demand and that this will set the stage for a rip-roaring comeback a year or two down the road. I further assume that experienced investors in the semi industry have been to this movie and have figured out that it's a fairly predictable way to make outsized returns: wait for oversupply to savage the stocks, ride'em back when the ASP starts climbing, and then get out of Dodge. Unfortunately for me, I brought my old fashioned 'buy and hold' mentality not realizing what the semi stock game was all about.
Just as I jumped in with a fistfull of LSI (which I did not know that Wall Street views as a DRAM stock and don't bother me with reality), I got to watch it crater for reasons still not clear to me. The frustration is more acute since I sat on the fence between ADI and LSI for some time. Then made the mistake of reading a George Gilder article that was very high on LSI and away we went. It is interesting that ADI has not gone much of anywhere since my LSI entry point but the LSI is off 1/3. Apparently, I have just become a long term investor!
In any event, the posts on this board from you and all the contributors are very, very high quality and very educational. Thanks for letting me listen in (wish I'd started earlier). Mike Doyle |
