re: "nickel-hydrogen", this is usually called nickel-metal-hydride, or NiMH. This is the technology that took over the market for NiCd before lithium-ion came along. Since then, Li-ion has become very hot with customers, so the NiMH vendors have been trying hard to make their product match the capacity (run time) of Li-ion. Note, it is still a lot heavier though. They have a lot of $$ tied up in factory equipment that is not amortized enough to retire yet, and since NiMH is way cheaper than Li-ion (like less than half as expensive), in applications such as low-cost products it is a good option.
However, most of the growth in NiMH sales has been through further eating the market share of NiCd. NiCd is still more reliable than NiMH, and even cheaper, so it is still used heavily in low-cost applications where capacity is "good enough" and cost is crucial, like cordless phones. Meanwhile, the growth of Li-ion has been into all the new applications, such as new product types, and through eating market share of NiMH in key products as notebooks and cell phones.
So, what's the point? Li-ion is taking over the world, at least in the realm of high-tech, high(er)-margin products such as notebooks, cell phones, digital cameras, PDA's, and perhaps someday electric cars. Meanwhile NiCd is still selling fine for cheap apps, NiMH is struggling to keep the middle ground, and lead-acid still has years of dominance in areas as car starters & emergency backup power. Li-polymer is targeting being the next-generation Li-ion and NOT targeting taking over the other segments (yet).
When Valence claims "WE WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRODUCERS OF LAPTOP AND CELLPHONE BATTERIES IN 1998", they are telling you what their target markets are. But anyone who believes they can out-manufacture the large Japanese companies such as Sony, Matsushita, Sanyo, Toshiba, etc. is smoking something. They might possibly be the dominant producer of *Li-polymer* batteries in 1998, but it is not looking good so far - at least Ultralife has shipped some product.
Yes, I have become a VLNC cynic recently with all the executive management turnover and continuing pushout of production. But you don't have to be cynical too - just keep your expectations reasonable. |
