Richard/to ALL... so far u and few others are being realistic and have the best guesstimate w/ CPQ in the near term... I don't know if you use chart/technical besides fundamental analysis... Anyway, based on chart, CPQ has major support around $25 1/2+ give or take few clicks... CPQ has an "inverted head and shoulder" also..based on after hours trading on Friday, it broke the major support already.. If this happen on Monday and CPQ can't close above $25 1/2 its going to be a free fall and every low is a new weak support... the next major support is around $19 1/2 give or take...If DEC preannounce also, it will definitely fall at that next support level I mentioned..
Also, based on latest revision earnings on conservative side, CPQ will make $1.23 (per CNBC, Friday) for FY98... At a price of around $24, that's a PE of 19.5..it seems fully value at that price this year IF "earnings is growing 20% ayear"...At a price of $19.5, CPQ will have PE of 15.8.. Since uncertainty for the next few qrts., bearish attitude overall due to more preannounce warning (fear of w/DEC too),tight competitions and Asia's effect on the tech sectors short term, hitting the upper teens in the near term could be CPQ's next directions...
If anyone own CPQ and for a long term investment, you should not panic at this price, it should able to recover by end of 2nd qrt. of this year.
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just a thought..
eL.. |
