I am very interested on your capability to predict the support level on CPQ at $25, $19 ...etc,
How can you predict the support level when things have not happened ? This tell me you must be a genius, or the genius has not born yet !!!!
As to the Asian flue, I think you still remember this storm started at Thai in late May of 97,
then Indonesia, Malasia, and Aug to Korea and Hong Kong in Sep ...etc. So, if there is an impact on computer sales, the result should already be reflected on OCT/1997, Jan/1998 earning report. Besides, Countries like Indonesia , and Tai probably did not buy that many PCs at all, so if you have a 50% reduction of unit sales from 100k units, it really is not that a big deal. For Hong Kong, the total population is about 6 million, so an economy of 6 million
population, what impact will it be to the US market , especially PCs, if there is an impact ?
But I do not see that impact. China's sales of PCs are about 0.4 MM units in 1997 and will grow at least 50% in 1998, and China's economy so far has no problem, and will not see
any problem in the near future, even though there are many rumors stirred from the west.
So, what is your point about the impact of Asian crisis?
Now Asia is in a recovery mode, the worst is over and just tempory if there is any, we see
Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea's stock market recoverying quick, and what did you see ?
So, start in the second half of 1998, when Asia continues to grow, and US and European economy
continue to be on the right track, I do not see any slow down in the computer industry at all.
Except the recent inventory issue , if you call this an issue, which are used by those shorters
to push down the stock price , which is just very normal after a hot seasonal sales of Chirstmas and new year. I think you realize those big department stores always had big sales after Christmas or New year seasons just to clean the inventory, so what is the difference in
the PC industry ? This inventory issue is just tempory and minor . So, I do not know what your prediction is based on, or just based on your own imagination, just like someone on this thread said on Monday, CPQ will drop to $18, but when ask for explanation, no response !!! |
