Debra, you asked for it!
First before rating the past, present, and future I'd have to preface this with the unknown magnitude that the Internet Telephony market may hold. Many communication gurus such as J. Pulver estimate the future market to be in the $60 billion range. I say "who really knows"
Many months ago I wrote that it would be late spring before anyone would be able to get a grasp on what or even where the Internet Telephony market was going. Most just don't realize that the whole damn thing is truly nothing more than an experiment unfolding, but certainly holds unimaginable promise for those that can grab a piece of the pie.
Enter Franklin.
Anyone who has taken any time what so ever to research Franklin's DVG product, or better yet experience it's clarity knows that Franklin has a damn good shot at obtaining the allusive piece of the aforementioned pie.
What it's worth is totally dependent on their being able to establish themselves early on. By that I mean, within or before the close of 1998.
Everyday we read of new players entering the fray, but pay close attention and you'll also notice most contain a small passage referring to 4th quarter roll-outs. They are all future, very few if any read in present day terms regarding revenues being generated. Level III, ITXC, QWST, all read as novels, but damn good novels none the less.
Franklin has an extremely viable product that is very configurable, 8,16, 24 channel, plus it can be stacked (modular). They also have additional features that none of the others have yet to announce. On top of this they are also in the process of building out a higher density chassis that will accomodate a 96 channel configuration, making them a player in the big telco arena. As my earlier post suggests the telcos will most likely be the last to commit, so Franklin isn't behind the curve, rather in front of the curve. They are presently addressing the niche markets that will be more responsive to early acceptance of this new technology.
Corporate accounts will follow in the footsteps of their earlier forays in embracing this new technology just like they did with fax, cellular phones, and desktop computers. It all boils down to cost effeciencies. The old "show me a cost savings, and I'll give it a try" routine. New products, new technologies but the game is still played the the same way.
My honest opinion is that Franklin needs to align themselves with an established provider of either high-tech equipment or more likely communication services.
If I can take the liberty of an educated guess, the natural alliance would be someone that specializes in Internet Services directed to corporate clients. Gridnet, UUnet, BBN, MCI, Winstar/Goodnet, LCI, all are likely candidates. This would also stay within the realm of my earlier post referencing the need to maintain an ISP personality.
To clear the air, one must really pay attention and ask themselves if they have really seen any large multi-national corporations commit to this new platform (IT) on any scale. The answer is NO. PERIOD.
The reason is that the technology is truly in its infancy, check out the report from the floor of the recent CTI show that was just held. The overall evaluation of most of the demos were clearly that of bordering on being unacceptable in providing toll quality signals.
Now ask yourself, how does Franklin stack up?
Better than average. Even so, large corporations are going to be reluctant to lay down the long bread. They are going to ease into this new arena, and if history is a teacher, they have learned from past experiences that until their is a standardization, a little dab will do ya. Put your toes in and test the water before jumping in otherwise you may get burnt, will be the order of the day. That you can count on.
Now ask yourself, how does a little dab here and little dab there effect the giant?
Answer...doesn't make a dent in their bottom line.
But with a small company like Franklin, a dab may mean 20 DVG's here, and 50 DVG's there, and they all add up to healthy growth pattern that should not only effect the bottom line quickly, but should quickly be realized in the share value.
Also keep in mind that quality will be the first basis of judgement and will reap the first dollars invested. This in turn could easily become the catalyst for a standard to develop and Franklin right now is playing on an even playing field. In other words they can just as easily become the standard by which all others are judged.
Is it going to be easy, hell no.
But let one big boy come on the scene and align themselves with Franklin, and like magic, a star could be born overnight.
Lots of if's and with no guarantees. But right now we have as good a shot as many of these other companies that are burning a lot more money, and yet are reflecting share values in the twenty-dollar range.
With all this said I'll now answer you question regarding ratings.
You asked:
1. What was FTEL three years ago (1 to 10) ?
2. Question what is FTEL at this time (1 to 10)?
3. What do you expect expect FTEL to be a year from now (1 to 10)?
Answers:
1). A company coming off a perceived failure in the form of the Hurricane 155. Flat on its ass, with nothing more than an idea to use the embedded technology within the Hurricane to address the emerging Internet arena. Applying the technology to voice, video, and data simultaneously. In other words the Hurricane is the foundation on which todays' company is built. Rating back then....(Zero) unless hope counts, then a (1) at best.
2).Today I would rate Franklin a 6.5. Five points for achieving a finished product with a tremendous amount of promise, another point for having raised the capital to make it a viable on-going entity, and another half a point for the timing. This coupled with an astute management team gives us an above average chance at obtaining sucess, IMO.
3). A year from now?
Well, revert back to the beginning of my post and you place a number on it, I can't. To me, we either have a lot of dirt or we hit the mother lode vein. Timing, know how, alliances, and a whole lot of luck could all mean the differnce between failure or unimaginable sucess.
Frank knows it, the investment community knows it, and the savvy investor all knows it.
This is it!
Franklin holds promise of having a shot at the big time and as a speculative investment it rates high in my risk portfolio.
Neither my opinion or anyone elses, pro or con will make a difference now.
Franklin will live or die by the merits of their own resources in both product and human resources.
The rest is up to catching a break and fate.
Rb |
