Your prediction of all those support from chart and Asia are all imagination.
As to the Intel phenomina,I my comment is that the problem for Intel are:
1) BTO business models conducted by those box makers, as a result, INTEL need to
build huge inventory to meet those on time delivery policy required from its customers.
INTEL had 90% of the world CPU business, which means its inventory will be great.
Inventory means cost , dead capital, that is why the profit margin drop.
2) The sub $1000 computers. competition from Cyrx and AMD/ lack of softwares which
needs high end PCs
The sub $1000 computers really open up the door of information world to everyone.
However for INTEL's previous business model is high profit margin , so it never comprimise for a low profit margin high volume business model. However, if INTEL won't, AMD and Cyrx will. Besides, the market is just lack of software applications which need
high end high speed CPUs. Why do I need a 300 Mhrz PCs to do word processings and
data analysis ? I do not. That is why there is no market for INTEL's high end CPUs at this moment. But when the WIN98 released in the middle of 1998, then it will be another story.
It really do not matter at all whether INTEL inside or AMD or Cyrx inside as long as the OS is the same, and the price is right. For very sophisticated applications, such as simulation ...etc, people use workstations, and super computers. SO, the high end PCs just sit in the middle without market at all. Of course, if INTEL will drop the price of high end cpu so that
high end PCs will sold with a low end price, that is another story.
3) The Alpha vs Merced.
Merced is developed by Intel and HWP, which was designed for HWP's advantage, while HWP is CPQ's competitor. So, if CPQ can sell the ALPHA based high end computers and servers, it will go with Alpha which CPQ has a control over. Besides, ALPHA is
something which is already in the market, and Merced will not tape out at the end of 1998.
As we know for a chip from tape out to real working, it still have long way to go , not to
mention complex chip like Merced, so a lot of uncertainity.
As to the Asia flue, I know better than everyone else on this thread. I speak their language,
read their newspapers on a daily base , and constantly talk with local business people over
there. As a matter of fact, in 1997, when the Asian storm started , I was in Taiwan, Hong Kong, China for more than one years. So my understanding about the business and economy
over Asia is not like you or many other what so called analysts which are based on imaginations, it is based personal experience in Asian business world.
Many corperations are now still using 486 , but as win98 to be released thise year, we will
see another boom for PC business, as well as DRAM business, which will start from the second half of the year and 1999, 2000 ....etc.
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