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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4396)3/8/1998 6:00:00 AM
From: Mama Bear  Read Replies (3) of 18691
 
>>>>Five weeks ago, someone could have looked at YHOO's pullback to 58 and shorted it,thinking he'd be in on the rest of the correction. But the stock's up 38 since then.<<

You got it! That is why academicians say the stock market is a random walk with a positive drift of about 10-12%/year on average.<<<

So, if someone makes an incorrect prediction, then it is reasonable to assume that the market is unpredictable? I was looking at the Yahoo! chart 5 weeks ago, and my prediction was that it needed a confirmation day before one could say it was in a downtrend. No confirmation occurred, as a matter of fact, it reversed. Since I made the correct interpretation, does that mean the market is predictable?

Barb
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