Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4422)	3/8/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) of 18691

>Americans are living on the edge, bankruptcies are the highest ever, banks will make loans to anyone, stocks are valued at 26 x's earnings 5x's book values. Watch for economic turmoil in Japan, devaluing of the Chinese Yuan and Re-pegging the Hong Kong dollar. Japan's national debt is almost 2x's their GDP, their market is down 60% over the last 8 years, their govt is pumping money into their stock market to support these prices. Japan was in trouble before Asia went belly up. Second China devalued in 94 to compete, although they say they won't again they will. Finally Hong Kong's economy is based on Real estate for which theres no demand. This game will go on until people start taking money off the table (because of declining economic conditions) and then the big blowoff will begin.< JTC: I could not have said it better myself. 100% in agreement but I am worried about whether we are either blind or crazy. What we need now is to have people play devil's advocate. Perhaps all the smart and respected people [not trying to include myself here] who have warned about this things for at least one year are crazy. I want to see the reasons behind people felling so optimistic. here is a rosy one from the Boston Globe: boston.com comments? Pancho

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