Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: paulmcg0 who wrote (14780)	3/8/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Paul, Last October people began piling in from other threads to this one and denouncing anyone who seemed skeptical of the market's levels at that time, no matter how reasoned and politely expressed their views might be. That seems to be one of the better psychological indicators that a real break may be near. As soon as I see someone posting to you a message that begins, "Are you nuts!" it will probably be a good point to buy puts on the S&P for anyone who gambles that way. Your comments on Bill's series of possible levels for the Dow seem quite astute to me. My own estimate of a possible bottom is based on the fact that when the Dow was at less than 7,000, John Templeton stated, "History has shown that bear market declines of as much as 40% are to be expected from time to time." Coming from the person who has most consistently called the market for the long term, for the last sixty years, this must be taken seriously. It implies about 4,200 on the Dow. I now regret having got into a brouhaha (spelling?) on this thread over an attack on your views. Indignation is a useless emotion.

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