Well, within a couple of hours after the opening bell tomorrow, I wouldn't expect Apple price will rise. However, after that, Apple will not only stabilize but also continue to surge in part due to the investment to Apple from Compaq, DEC, even from CSC after breaking talk with CA.
I think you're right that AAPL will first drop because of the CPQ news, and eventually regain its value. That has been the pattern for the last little while, and that's what happened after the INTC warning.
But I don't see the rebound in AAPL coming from CPQ/DEC investors who are flying to quality. Those posts you found on the CPQ thread are certainly interesting, but I doubt that they're very representative of the typical CPQ or DEC investor. Most PC investors don't have much respect for Apple. Their money would much more likely go into SUNW, or somewhere like that. Maybe even MSFT, because unlike CPQ and INTC, MSFT is benefitting from this zero-margin, hyper-competitive sub-$1k computer market. Windows95 and MSOffice cost the same regardless of the price tag on the computer (don't they?).
So whatever money comes into AAPL to provide a rebound, it will probably come from whoever has been buying it in the last month, and/or from people smart enough to realize that the Apple and PC markets are in completely different cycles right now.
(Btw:thanks, Philip, for all of your technical analyses. I couldn't make sense of those numbers by myself).
rhet0ric |
