Maurice,
look like the power failures in NZ has no impact on your political ramblings. Your key board must run on sherry powered energy.
OT
Finally back home after long flight. Eight days in Beijing gave me no reasons to be optimistic. 1.2 billion consumers with no purchasing power adds to up not much. After pounding miles of pavement and risking my life crossing thousands of intersections, I don't see any signs of encouragement. Shopping centers, especially the large and modern ones with foreign goods, are not all that crowded and filled with curiousity seekers rather than cash register ringing shoppers. I did not run into a single PC store. The closest I came to was a copier/fax machine store, though I did see one shopping center displaying a temporary Iomega booth. I was told the computer stores are in the college district but did not see one as we drove through the area.
I see a lot of cell phones in use, though not big as a percentage of population. The price is dirt cheap which leads me to concerns about profitability for US$ denominated investments. A "standard" cell phone cost around US$100-$200 range. Cost per minute is only $.05 with what appears to be a very minimal monthly charge. I was told that with average use, the monthly bill averages around US$10-$20 though I have no official source to back up the numbers. ERICY and NOKIA appears to dominate the market now though I see a lot of MOT phones in use.
I had a conversation with a 25 yr old computer engineer who works for NewNet. Has anyone heard of this company? They do Short Message System and SS7(?) type products. At US$500 per month, he considers himself quite well off. He also mentioned that it will be very easy for him to find a US$3K+ per month job in the US, as many of his college friends have chosen to do. If a college grad with $500 per month is good income, how much purchasing power can China possibly have at this time.
He is aware of CDMA since his SMS can be sent through both GSM and CDMA. He thinks that CDMA is much newer and therefore not prevalent anywhere yet. SAMSUNG is likely going to have to play a major role for CDMA to make a dent in China.
Corruption remains big problem and consensus lean toward the worse-than-before camp.
Unemployment is big issue since it was technically zero under communism. Tourism, a major source of foreign currency, is expected to be way down, especially from SEA countries. Many restaurants we visited had as many employees as customers. With the reforms being discussed at the National People's Congress, it is going to get worse before it gets better.
The strength of the US market is just amazing. With INTC, MOT and CPQ prewarning, I guess the impact is still not convincing enough. What possibly could investors be waiting for to send the market tumbling? I got it - the next Ramsey Su vacation dates - leaving April 4 and back by April 13. Remember, you heard it here first.
Ramsey |
