Patrick,
Thank you although fib retracements are quite foreign to me. Is that a French method of TA or something? <<gg>>
The more time I spend examining the INTC chart, the more I think I see a head and shoulders top. It is a multiple formation with the left shoulder in Feb and May of '97, the head Aug '97 and the right shoulder in Nov '97 and Feb '98. If I have done the formation correctly and drawn the neckline correctly, it appears the measuring implications will not be met until INTC hits around $50 per share.
I could be all wet, but the SOX index (Of course INTC is part of the index, so that accounts for some of it) looks like a head and shoulders and other charts in the index (upon a cursory glance, I am going to study them in detail later) also appear to be a bit toppy. New bull market? I don't know. I wish I had a better feel for this TA stuff. The long term chart reads are new to me and although the Edwards and Magee book is a good one, there is as much an art to this as a science. Very subtle mis-reads in volume or chart action can cause a complete mis-read. One thing was interesting though, the book states that island reversals are frequently seen in a head and shoulders formation. I don't think however, that if my initial read and thoughts are correct that the correction would be something that happens over night. I think it could take up to a couple of years to play out. I don't know, but at this point I am cautious on a long term basis. Of course, intra-day or ever over a couple of weeks, we could have nice bull moves etc...
Don't anyone take what I have said here as actual. I really don't know and am throwing it out as my thoughts today. I would appreciate any feedback on this read.
-Scott |
