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Technology Stocks : Vari-L (VARL)

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To: Gregory DeMoully who wrote (630)3/8/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: Gerald Walls  Read Replies (1) of 2702
 
I thought the thread might be interested that VARL gave a 25 minute presentation at the first NASDAQ Investor's Forum, held in Phoenix on Saturday. The presentation was very positive and the initial investigation I've done of the stock has me thinking that I'll probably buy a small amount. Unfortunately my wife and I were one of about 10 people (max) that attended that presentation.

Most other presentations were sparsely attended also, with some exceptions being Intel (they later scheduled a second presentation), Qualcomm, and a couple of other big boys. Microsoft was not present nor was a home-town favorite of mine, Orbital Sciences (ORBI).

Each half hour six companies gave a 25 minute presentation in one of six rooms. I imagine that any company going at the same time as Intel was very sparsely attended.

BTW, other companies that seem to have potential (not to be confused with investments with potential as I haven't done any checking yet) are Imatron and Alliance Pharmaceuticals.

Imatron:
Imatron's Ultrafast CT seems to be an amazing piece of equipment for diagnosing heart disease before any symptoms appear, allowing preventative measures to be taken. The estimated cost of about $400 per non-invasive scan and the fact that they can detect much smaller blockages than much more expensive and invasive techniques can is also a plus. The technology can also be used (with an injected imaging compound) to create a 3D computer model of the heart and all of it's blood vessels. Another application demoed at the presentation was creating a 3D model of the intestinal tract with two one-minute scans. In both of these 3D models the doctor can take a Fantastic Voyage-type journey to examine a computer-generated representation of abnormalities. The demo showed an intestinal polyp. I've never been scoped up the butt myself but I'd bet it's an experience to be avoided, and this would avoid it...

The Ultrafast CT is the only CT equipment fast enough to take a freeze picture of the heart, being 20 times faster than normal CT scanners. According to the company's presentation, the American Medical Association has mentioned their equipment very positively in several published papers. This presentation generated a lot of interest from some of the older men in the audience. The company said that a unit will be installed in Phoenix (I forget where) sometime this fall, and with heart disease running in my family I'll probably try to convince my HMO doctor to refer me even though I'm only 35 (fat chance) or I might pay for the procedure out of pocket if it really is only $400.

Alliance Pharmaceuticals:
They have a couple of interesting products in Phase II and Phase III trials. One is a "blood substitute", or what they prefer to call an "oxygen carrier." Trials have shown that when administered in place of blood during surgery the positive effect of the transfusion appears quicker and lasts longer than with blood. The oxygen-carrying particles are also much smaller than a red blood cell, raising the possibility that this may be effective in avoiding further damage in stroke and coronary patients by delivering oxygen past a nearly-completely blocked blood vessel.

This substance is milk white. They showed slides of a red-eyed, pink-eared mouse with a tube it him that sucked out all of his blood and replaced it with the blood substitute, leaving him white eyed and beige eared. They then reversed the exchange and the mouse was supposedly none the worse for wear.

The second product is a liquid ventilation drug for use in patients that normally would be placed on forced-air ventilation. Forced-air ventilation is apparently quite damaging to the lungs and trails show that liqui-vent is more effective and safer than forced-air ventilation. The trials measured the number of days out of a 28-day period that a patient was off of ventilation and it was something like 4 days for forced air and low-double digits for liqui-vent. Those numbers are vaguely remembered so may not be exact. The presentation gave a case example of an Australian premature infant who had collapsed lungs and the ventilator blew a hole in one of her lungs and she seemed sure to die so the doctors and parents agreed to the liqui-vent. It was a great success.

It's unlikely that I'll invest in Alliance Pharaceuticals because so far I've had no success investing in that field. Too many variables and government hoops to work through.

Visual Edge:
A company that I'd stay away from unless you're looking to play a quick pop is Visual Edge (EDGE). They computer-produce a video showing you swinging a driver side-by-side with Norman, who owns a significant amount of the company's stock. The video is very interesting (mine will be mailed to me as they had too many people at the event getting them made and they fell behind) and Norman explains the proper golf swing using himself as an example with computer generated lines overlaying both him and yourself so you can see what you're doing wrong, but I just don't see any blow-out potential here. The worst thing is that a couple of brokers travelling with the company started giving me the hard sell right at the booth, telling me that "Norman can't get out of the stock until it hits 10 and why would he agree to that if it wouldn't?" When I said I'd looked at the chart and thought it was pretty ugly they said that it really was good because now I could get in at a great price and that it had fallen from 13 a year ago to a low of 2 last month because people had bought it just because Norman was involved and it didn't have any fundamentals at that time (isn't that why they're telling me to buy?) and that on Monday they were going to start aggressively generating interest in the stock. Sounds like a pump and dump to me, probably to try to get Norman out at 10! Of course if you rode along it would be about a triple from current prices... It'll also probably be a great short when it's over.
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