MetaCreations (MCRE) - Detailed Goo in a Soapy Dream Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MetaCreations (MCRE) - Detailed Goo in a Soapy Dream

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To: neko who wrote (543)	3/8/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: neko	Read Replies (3) of 846

I'm still waiting for some intelligent discussion rather than short sellers or whiners. Don't just say a persons wrong without some useful information to support your thoughts. This segment is full of facts, support your thoughts or get off the thread. This stock deserves more than the silent treatment. I've been running a number of valuation scenarios and each time I come up with the same conclusion this stock is setting up for a major movement. If you got in at 6.75 I believe that you are in at a great time. As of today I think the stock is trading at 8.8. I've looked at the high and low first call estimates and I think that even at $10 this stock is a great value for 1998 and an outstanding value for 1999. Currently trading at 23 times 1998 the company is expected to grow at 53% in the next year. The typical multiple for that type of growth should be around 35. At todays level it gives the stock an incredible PEG value. Based on 1998 earnings I easily see the stock trading at $13.00 per share and based on 1999 it should be worth $20.00 per share. I am a value investor and invest on fundamentals. If you want an extremely low risk and possible explosive (assuming a return of 130% on your invest is considered explosive) investment I urge you to consider MCRE. The 10-Q talks about a huge number of software products in the pipeline with Kai-PowerTools ver. (xx) soon to be released. The most positive thing I can say after last quarters earnings shortfall is that the management is taking the necessary steps to put them on target. They said the one mistake they had made was in failing to market with OEM's. Shortly after they announced that they announced signing up Epson or Kodak to bundle Power Goo with there products. They announced 1 other which I forgot was a good OEM. In other words they are doing just what they need to just meet the numbers in the estimates. Can you imagine what this stock will be worth is they earn more than the projected numbers. That means they will be exceeding a growth rate of 53%. If they kill the street numbers I have a projected upper limit in 1999 price of $30 per share. If they miss their numbers by 50% (hard to imagine them doing that, unless Santa Barbara falls into the Ocean), I still project $12 per share in 1999. I hope you lurkers enjoy these numbers. This is a great investment. Even a purchase at $10 would virtually gaurantee a 20% return, which is no home run, but beats the tar our of the Bank interest rate. I see no reason to speculate that such a offer is in the works, but imagine if some growth slowing software (hint.. hint ADBE) decided to increase they growth rate a tad, makes an offer for MCRE. I can gaurantee that it would be above $10 per share. So my projections are ($/share): 1998 1999 hi 13+ 20+ (30 based on a momentum earnings growth model) low 7 12 today trading at 8.8 My history on projections has been quite good (approx. 94%) over the last 3 years. Most recently on PMTC in November I project a price of $60 when the stock traded at $41 based on fundamentals and it closed above $60 a couple times recently. The volatility of this stocks makes it an easy target for momentum and short players with recent price swings from $6 to $19.5. In my opinion this gives it even a better chance of reaching reasonable targets very soon. prrr, neko

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