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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 119.41

-2.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: China Trader who wrote (33102)	3/8/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) of 176387

Consensus means estimates for DELL Q1 are 0.83 (range 0.78 - 0.86) by First Call as of 3/7, and 0.82 (range 0.75 - 0.86) by Zaks as of 2/28. FWIW, my financial model for DELL, which takes into account IDC and Dataquest projected PC sales worldwide (amongst other things), and which has been on the money to +/- 0.01 for the last 4 quarters, shows DELL earning 0.87 (range 0.85 - 0.89). So I believe the longer term prospects for DELL are unchanged by the CPQ/INTC warnings -- there's plenty of market share for DELL to grab even if PC sales are below the present (already lowered) expectations, and DELL has shown that they can take market share in big chunks - even when CPQ was increasing its market share at the same time as last year. IMO, we're going to see some downward pressure on DELL (and other tech stocks tomorrow) after an opening around 66-67, but I believe DELL has a better chance than most of holding up. I was pretty amazed at the broad strength in both the tech stocks and the markets generally on Friday. It only took 24 hours for the INTC news, which was in fact much worse than last May, to be discounted and for everything to rebound (despite MOT). Seems to me that shrugging off CPQ will take a bit longer, even if there are no more surprises. David T.

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