David,
I agree with you on Apple's optimistic earning figure, but cannot
support your estimated price of $30 by the year end, and other
thoughts.
First, if Apple could beat street's estimate by a big margin (let's
say double or triple), then this stock is going to fly to $35 (the
rationale has been repeatedly depicted before) in the mid of April.
If only beat the street's estimate by narrow margin, then the price
will linger between $25 and $30.
Rhapsody is Apple's weapon that can help it sells more servers, but
Apple needs to aggressively market Rhapsody into Federal Government,
Schools, and publishing industry. I don't know much about MacNC since
I am not quite interested in that idea, which make us back to "dumb"
terminal stage. Besides, I wonder if there exists any market so far.
The concept was brought up by Ellison because it will benefit to
server's database/applications. Maybe I am wrong about its potential.
Yes, QuickTime is another application and getting popular in all
private industry as a standard form.
If you look from the market value's angle, you would see Apple's been
undervalued for 5+ years, it only has 3.1b, as opposed to Microsoft's
200+b, Dell's 45+b, Gateway's 5.8+b. It is ridiculously low on
Apple's stock. I firmly believe the price will be adjusted with a big
jump as long as Q2's is as expected.
Phil |
