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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (20809)3/8/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Hector  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Stephen,

I believe Dell's historical multiple is 20-25 in a bull market.
That gives you about 60-75 if the bull continues. In a bear market,
I would expect the multiple to go to 10-15, which I guess gives you
30 or so. PC sales is a commodity business and as with any commodity supply eventually overtakes demand. That seems to be happening today.

I would rather buy CPQ at these lower prices than jump on the
bandwagon and hope more fools are getting into Dell. At least CPQ
has a long term track record to warrant hope for the future.

Dave
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