VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: scope who wrote (5835)	3/8/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: RT	Read Replies (1) of 23519

Scope, I do not believe LeLand in his earnings forecast has factored in any shipments from the new plant. If the MCA approval does takes place this quarter, then product produced at risk will be shipped to the UK. This would have a positive impact on earnings and thus have a positive effect on stock valuation. The big question is, what level of product sales must now be attained for Vivus to maintain profitability in this new competitive atmosphere? With Vivus already acknowledging a decrease in product demand and the need to advertise, along with the low scrip reorder rate, it confirms the product satisfaction rate has been marginal. If the reorder rate does not improve dramatically it can mean real trouble. Last quarter they shipped 1.8 M units and settled a $ 5.1M suit and posted $.17 EPS. So why the anticipated loss this quarter? 1 QTR 98 Knowns / Variables 1. 1.8M Units shipped (EST.) (Same as last quarter) 2. No milestone payments. ($4 M last Quarter) 3. Loss of favorable tax treatment (8% last Quarter) 4. Lower margins on product sent to the UK. ($7 per scrip. UK vs $17 US approx.) 5. Expense of operating second plant 6. Advertising campaign ($5 M budgeted) 7. Legal expenses. Any comments, RT

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