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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4424)3/9/1998 2:09:00 AM
From: Tai Jin  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Pancho,

I believe that the less you know about a stock the more random you might think its movement. Someone who knows about all the factors affecting a stock will know how the stock will behave. Of course, there is no such person. The smart money knows more than most of us do and if you are clever, you may be able to determine where they are putting their money and to follow their lead. It would be unprofitable to bet against them.

As far as fair valuation, it is based on supply and demand. Of course, I don't think there is a single correct valuation for a stock as different people will value the stock differently, but the majority rules. So right now the shorts are getting their asses kicked in Internet stocks because many investors are willing to pay more for the stocks. There is no proper valuation except for the current valuation. In time, the valuation will change to reflect general investor sentiment.

I would like to see these Internet stocks come down to earth as much as you would, but it's really tough to gauge what the valuation and investor sentiment will be in the future. But there appears to be a lot of momentum behind these stocks, so it's tough to bet against them right now. Boy, I wish I had tomorrow's paper today!

...tai
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