Hi e'body - here's my thoughts re Bob's battle plan
"a. Our current market is priced for perfection. A 10 -20% correction can come with no notice..." Well, I like trends and I hate volatility. Lets denote the market by big P for price = f(x,y,z......). The
volatility is some sort of an average dP/dx | dP/dy ....etc. What concerns me now is the idea that some dz is allowed to cause a dP of this size. For the moment thank God that in case of INTC the dz stood for the profit warning (which should be up front anyhow). Still, are we getting used to such swings?....
b) 'Puter business cyclical?" It may be so, but what happened to create such a change? I remember Jim Rogers years ago to proclaim that, but I dont remember any of his reasons, if any were given. I looked at Cisco long and steady yesterday and what I saw (even with the infamous "falling-down-the-stair-case" incident in spring 97) were steady corridors being interrupted by some minor and major earthquakes. Comments welcome.
c) "bad news out for good": HWP is on next week, but possible bad tidings have already been factored in. I dont see then anything until may. Im edgy on Dell's statement "business as usual". But we trust good ol' Mike don't we?
d) "Madness/share-price-depression should hit its high levels soon": i don't know how to read this.Anyhow, what I'm afraid of right now is an "irrational exuberance" steam train, full of lemmings, pushing DJI towards 9k. Especially in view of the fact that there's been some divergence between bond yields and the stock valuation recently.
Regards
PS:"I also like the 1400 buy rule a lot" and "Not sure that I like this buy/hold stuf" - what about buy/hold overnight rule as a compromise ;)?
DJ |
