<<I see you also believe in miracles. I'm praying for one myself, but the reality of the situation dictates 40+ is a minimum of 1 year away>>
I disagree. By end of 2nd Quarter, all the pieces for this company will be in place, with the main pieces being FDA and MCA approvals.
Unless Viagra becomes the greatest drug since penicillin, VVUS will continue to sell MUSE both domestically and internationallyand will add production capacity, start building its new plant, etc.
Over the last 2 quarters of 1998, and the first 2 quarters of 1999, Vivus should be able to do at least 1.50 in EPS for US sales, at least 75 cents in EPS for international sales, and at least 50 cents in EPS for milestone payments.
Total, 2.75 in EPS over next 4 quarters. i believe this is neither worse case nor best case. At 15 times, we're at 40 dollars. Vivus should trade at 15 times or better, but has recently been "punished" by analysts for 4q97. When Vivus shows they are able to produce product to meet demand, they'll be forgiven and be upgraded with a higher multiple, imo. This should be before end of 3Q.
Mike |
