I have been lurking around this thread for quite a while without ever having anything to contribute. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you, both long and short for a most enjoyable and informative thread. I have never had the opportunity to listen to so many sane stock pickers in my life.
I am 70% short- scmm at 50, amzn at 77 wdry at 24, and so forth so I am in the same boat as many of you. (Also avnt and zona short at significantly higher levels, thank God). I would remind all the shorts of two facts. First, when the market falls we will be rewarded. But note the large returns which we seek come at a price. A price we must willingly bear- that of absorbing the risk of the transactions. It is unfair of us really - though I do and commiserate right with you- to gripe about what an insane world the game has entered. It is this insane world that allows us to ultimately make the wealth we seek. If it were not our willingness to bear this stupidity and its resultant attack on our wealth, then everyone would play our side and the profits would diminish accordingly.
Second, and the real point of my coming out of the woodwork now is to suggest that while things are going against us, we must each consider when we are going to exit. Not when we have had enough, but when things turn our way, as they surely will. I have been a successful short seller for many years. My two biggest short mistakes, Diana and Oxford came from covering too soon when reality pricing hit those securities. I was short Oxford for over four years, then on that fateful Monday in October I covered at 31. I was so happy to just have a little profit and be out of a stock that had done me in so bad. Diana I short at 20 something followed to over a 100 and covered with gratitude at 51.
So instead of crazy prices- what are the prices of the various stocks we should consider exiting at. The time will come- we all know that, let us be ready.
Thanks again for a most enjoyable thread- I am now back into the woodwork
Nevada
PS Pancho- what do you teach? (I am also a college prof- accounting) |
