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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)

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To: Doug who wrote (4485)3/9/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Paul Fine  Read Replies (1) of 6980
 
Doug- The Nasdaq fell 28 pts today, Intel/Compaq/Motorola give warnings, the sector leader(cisco) fell over 4 pts; and you want to know why sentiment changed so fast?!?

It has been posted here earlier last week; Bay has been very cautious about forecasting sequential growth this quarter. They have said the quarter is "backloaded", with the need for 50% of the sales forecast to come in during March. That is a risky scenario for anyone. Remember, it was an unexpected shortfall in this same quarter in 1996 that led to the ouster of the old management 6 months later.

If we don't make $.27-.28 this quarter, there will be a big drop for a few months(IMO). Promises for the 4 qtr will be suspect until analysts can "see the whites of their eyes". This stock and these times are not for the faint of heart. We are slightly below the 50 day MA and have closed at the low of the day on two consecutive days on strong volume. That is not good. It says nothing about the strength of the company or its management; it says volumes about the strength of the stock. As investors, we need to be constantly reminded that in the short term they are not necessarily the same thing.

Paul
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