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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread

DELL 120.60

+1.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: jjs_ynot who wrote (16)	3/9/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) of 2578

THE DELL MARKET SHARE MYTH Clearly there are indications that DELL is gaining market share in their segment. However for a P/E of 50 can DELL maintain the growth rate that they have to date. Note that if they do another 4 bagger, they will have a market value exceeded only by GE and Microsoft. Can market share be gained fast enough to maintain growth in a market that is currently growing at 15-20 percent per year and may taper off as companies and governments have to pay for the year 2000 problem. China is the perceived growth opportunity; however, China may lay off 500,000 people this quarter due to overcapacity and unproductive factories. If the market looks ahead 6 to 9 months the slowdown in growth may be starting to show up in the price. Also, the sub $1000. PC is certainly cannibilizing the High end PC market for CPQ but also potentially for the rest of the industry as well.

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