Dear Rudy:
Thanks for the input. Apparently you are very negative on pramlintide. Most of the facts your comments based on were out by last Aug., however, you saved the comments for after JNJ had pulled out. It is interesting but still appreciated. Let's see the facts. You said effect on type I is marginal, the fact is pramlintide showed the reduction of HbA1c of 0.4% in patients with entry HbA1c of 8% or higher. It was with 144 out of 221 patients and statistically significant. You have to remember that normal HbA1c is below 6%, and from 8% to 6% there is a 2% abnormality. 0.4% out of 2% is not marginal. In fact, FDA would approve drugs for type II with a reduction of .5%, the drug you mentioned from ERGO is only slightly higher than .5%. For type I, it is different because there is no treatment other than insulin. Also, I do believe the number should be above .5% for the up-coming trials according to available info. You mentioned six trial IIIs, but they are for two different indications. Of course, looking back I wish the company could have done trials in type I first then gone on to type II at a later time. But that is like Monday night quarterbacking.
Also, it is true that type I is a much smaller market than type II, but everything is relative, with a population of over 1.5m patients out there, it is not a small market at all. In fact, type I patients follow treatment directions the best because of their conditions. The market penetration should be quite high.
Finally, you said my numbers were not close to reality, bring up yours then, we can get to some numbers that will be close enough.
D.Right |
