Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Druss who wrote (4583)	3/9/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Druss, great post! "Shorts initiate positions too soon." Being early is not so devastating on the long side. As an example, IMO the semiconductor capital equipment companies (AMAT, et. al.) will see explosive growth in the near future as the transition to 300 mm wafers starts in earnest. If this analysis is correct, then investing in these companies will be very rewarding over the next few years. OTOH, when we find ourselves saying: "That will never payoff", like with AMZN ... we may be correct ... but how soon will others agree? Its an old market clich‚ ... the stock market is like a beauty contest ... but the goal is not to pick the winner, but to pick who everyone else thinks the winner will be! Like many on this thread, I ignore this "wisdom" and try to guess the eventual winners (or losers) and profit in the long term. My short positions are minimal right now ... maybe this should be considered a contrary indicator<g>. Best Regards, Bill

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