Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4631)	3/10/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Pancho, speaking of the sixties, I've been focused on '62. Look at the stats - 22.4 PE to end '61, strong GNP (and earnings) growth in '62 (about 16% for S&P eps), inflation almost nil (less than 2% for 3-4 years in early 60s), long-term treasury rates at 4% and change (and stable like inflation). What happened? 27% correction. A very good letter to the Barron's Mailbag this week raises the same 1962 questions and also trashes the "Abby Says Relax" bull case. Seems she selectively ignores history and even distorts the facts to make her case that markets only rise in low inflation, high PE environments and that PEs aren't really that high anyway. Good fortune, Bob

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