Adam, you keep whipsaw back-n-forth so much in your views that it's hard to see if you believe in anything you say. Bay management is already very good at P.R. I do believe, though, that they don't have to let the street know every little bumps & humps in the quarter, especially if Bay's management were to feel confident that they can make the quarter. Casting uncertainties only weaken your stock - the street hates uncertainties & the analysts love it as they have reasons to cause volatility.
If we were to look back at March '97, we would see that the quarter was also back-end loaded (~40-50% of revenue), yet Bay came through and beet street views. Notice that Cisco inferred they have been having back-end loaded quarters recently, yet I'm not even aware of it until now:
In the techweb article, Cisco said. "In recent quarters, the sequential sales growth has slowed from prior levels, and a disproportionate share of the sales has occurred in the last month of the quarter"
Personally, I believe Bay should do fine as Accelar strong sales should overcome any weakness. After this quarter, the street will come to brand Bay as the routing switch company (a market in which Cisco is defenseless), and the stock will zoom. Of course, I'm only a dreamer.
Just some thoughts from a humble Bay shareholder...
ptv |
