Gary:
Michael Shaefer the author of a newsletter called Outstanding Investments in the Natural Sector" wrote a report called Oil Shock. In that report Robert Meir who is described as a "widely respected geopolitcal analyst" gave his views on the Saudi Situation and the problems in the Mideast. His salient points were:
1. Saudi Arabia only came into existence in the 1930's, when one of the warring tribes in the area with the support of the British conquered the other tribes. Ibn Saud, the leader of the victor tribe, promptly executed the chiefs of 18 conqured tribes. His allies executed an additional 40,0000 people and amputed limbs from another 350,000 people (total population 4 million) This means 1 out of every 11 folks in the country were killed or maimed. Needless to say this has sown the seeds of discontent in the country.
2. Since the 70's King Fahd has been keeping the disgruntled tribes loyal by buying them with welfare programs, jobs, allowances, etc.
3. Fahd is 75 year old and a few years ago declared that his successor need not be his half brother but should be the best prince for the job. This according to the author creates a prospect for "violent internecine squabbles between dozens of hopelessly corrupt, degenerate sub-family and tribal groups, some still practicing slavery."
4. High probability of a collapse of the government in the next several years. He is betting on a bloody civil war with the U.S. caught in the middle. He confirms that the likely successor is Prince Abdullah is noted for his anti-American views.
I profess no expertise in the area and pass this on for your information.
Live long and prosper,
Little joe |
