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Non-Tech : TJX Companies (TJ Maxx, etc.)
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To: Michael Burry who wrote (4)10/17/1996 11:06:00 PM
From: Feraldo   of 30
 
Maybe a bad move on Tadiran, but good on U.S. Robotics.

Here are TJX's prior profit margins

4q 96 vs. 95 1.9 vs. 1.2
1q 97 vs. 96 1.9 vs. 1.1
2q 97 vs. 96 2.2 vs. .9

Now the third quarter they tend to have the high margins. Last year's were 3.3%. So could we see 4% or 4.5%. At 4% let's examine earnings:

September sales increased 84.2%

That puts them at 1865.4 mil in sales based on if they have an 84% increase for the third quarter as a whole. (Note August sales were stronger.)

Now times 4% is 74.6 mil in profit.

divided by 72.9 mil shares. $1.02 per share.

Now take into factor that a CEO would not overstate what his company will come out with. they usually forecast .05 to .1 cents less. So on that we could get .9 to 1.00 per share. So if sales are strong in the fourth, we could see 1.02 or more per share. If they come out with say 1.1 we could see a stock price of 80 or more.

I myself see 1.05 a share.

Good luck and best wishes
Daniel Sermersheim
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