jeffrey, << txn and photomask sector >>
If you check my profile you'll see I'm retired from TI after
27 years, all in engineering at some level or another. I've no
inside knowledge, but do expect poor earnings from TI this qtr
based on the current technology transition in place. I think this
transition is what bit Intc. On to specifics:
There's a pecking order in this industry. It's about moving to
new technology processes derived from research. TXN's equipment
used for above .25u processing won't work with .25 and below. The next
roadblock will be at around .1 and below. These changes require
new equipment and in some cases new buildings. Technology is approaching many known limits in physics. We're now working near
the limits of the wavelength of light in processing chips. Pretty
awesome.
What DPMI has done is create a process that will allow the semi
industry to move to the .1u process level without investing billions
in new process equipment. Other equipment is adequate for this
level except for photomask. Seems DPMI has the solution, unknown to
me, to resolve this issue. They claim 2001 or so before implementation.
My investment timing comes from the ignorance of wallstreet. Little
do they understand the significance of this process in photo-
lithography. Wallstreet sees only equipment sales preceding process
in the industry, which is correct,except in this situation. I'm
gambling on poor TXN qtr1 earnings putting a bottom to the semi
industry and associated equipment suppliers as wallstreet believes
the equipment suppliers have had their run for .25u and below. Now
my vision, right or wrong, is exposed to all. I say, the more
mavericks, the better chance we have of taking control. This gets
into statistical analysis, another broker player in the market. It's an information war against us and them. Getting a little far out here.
You ask, and I core dumped! Good investing. Long term DPMI is a player. I'm just trying to play timing. A wallstreet no, no. Right!:-)
Larry |
