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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 168.06

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (9162)	3/10/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Tero, some of my best friends are Finns. To coin a phrase. Not Neil and Tim Finns, but the real sauna-soaking McCoy [though they don't use the name McCoy]. I would take no pleasure in either Nokia or Finland going down the gurgler. I was making the point that the need to stay out of the gurgler is not a way of predicting success. Yes, cdmaOne handsets better have Chinese written on them. Efficient spectrum use and lower cost is no use if people can't read the screen. Don't set too much store by GSM being in the lead. Don't forget GSM did have a very big lead. That will take a little time to catch up on. Maybe 2 years. Don't forget that spectrum efficiency means base station efficiency which means lower call costs, with no quality loss, which means happier customers. cdmaOne electronic gizzards are not inherently more expensive than any other electronic gizzards. They have been initially, but don't be surprised when those costs drop steeply. 8 million GSM units sold in 1997 is a good start. 1200 million to go. For China anyway. That seems to leave room for cdmaOne to make up ground. Although Ramsey insists China is near down and out, we go on shipping them dollars and their economy goes on growing at about 10% per year. At 30 million GSM unit sales in 2000, that will still take 30 years to supply 75% of people. In 30 years, they might not all be so poor at 10% per year growth. It was surprising to read that the belt clip for the Q-phone was hopeless. Yes, all those little things have to be right and form a complete competitive consumer satisfying package. A clever chip is far from enough. I'd say Nokia will continue to do really well in all types of handset sales. Finland should do well too. I suspect Nokia would even benefit from cdmaOne sweeping the field as they would be in a position to get an increased market share of mobile telephony. Ericsson won't be. Mqurice

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