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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1201)3/10/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Mr Logic  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
Melissa
I know I'm on difficult territory going short, especially in this market. But consider this scenario. You see a company Abacad at $30 and think that the collective investment community has made a mistake, they got it wrong. Otherwise the stock would be at $60.

So, you buy stock ABCD at $30. It goes to $60 and you think that the reasons you felt the stock should rise are now fully reflected at $60. You spotted the undervaluing and now you feel it is fair value, worth probably 12% pa. You sell, and improve your quality of life, or just choose to invest somewhere else. So you sell, feel pleased with your 100% gain.

Shorting I am doing almost exactly the same thing. I buy at $30, sell at $60 and there is my profit for using my judgement.

We are both contrarian in our actions. Believe me I am doing this to make money; I am an unaffiliated private investor. My short is not best timed - at $53 1/2, but then maybe that's the same selling a little too early in the case above.

>>If you were going to short SEBL, the time to short was when it was at 63. At least then you could have made some money in the last week<<

Come on, that's a bit unfair. Any committed long could also have sold SEBL at 63, an bought back here. At least then THEY could have made some money in the last week.

I haven't made up the reasons I am short. No communication I make here could ever have an impact on the price. But if ever I hear one good reason I should be long that I haven't thought of, I will reconsider immediately. I'm here to benefit from these boards. When I make decisions I like to see a lot of views. I'm entitled to mine and respect yours.

>>If I remember correctly, you had the numbers wrong on PSFT too<<

You are smarter than that. No malicious intent, I was a little out by mistake. And SEBL numbers are a matter of interpretation, averaging close to nothing.

Let's continue to disagree in a civil fashion and maybe we both benefit.

>>This IS about making money isn't it?? <<
Yes, but let's enjoy ourselves doing it and above all, let's not forget why we are doing it.
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