Gary,
I've been reading your posts for sometime now with great amusement. Do you really believe this stock has any value at all? The fact that you say you are "long" is baffling, and borders on absurd. I hope you don't mind that I've taken the liberty of paraphrasing in some places, but let's look at a few "phallicies":
1. "The big network boys aren't serious now, but they will be in the second half of 1998." I can't understand why, after spending so much money (e.g., Sahara and OnStream acquisitions in 1996), and having an identifiable market for ATM access concentrators, the "big boys" weren't very successful in capturing market share. Based on the number of ATM network deployments we're all reading about, I'm not convinced that there will be enough competition by mid-year. It's obvious that the "big boys" with the exception of LU and CSCO (perhaps BAY) are having tremendous difficulties executing. NN is such a loser, I wonder how long they'll be in business. I agree that FORE is pathetic.
2. "YURI is priced out of market." I know you didn't think highly of Mr. Stix's report, but he did cite that ADCT had tried to aggressively price their product to capture market share, and failed. They have since backed off this strategy.
3. "No direct sales strategy (margin issue?)." I have no idea what you are talking about. As you might be aware, YURI does have a direct sales force, and I've heard that they have made significant sales this quarter. Please elaborate on the so-called margin issue. Please call the company and try to get this issue straightened out.
4. "The OEM as a questionable business model." You praise the virtues of a direct sales force and attack the company constantly for it's reliance on OEMs. There are two companies that we all know that once provided IBM with operating systems and microprocessors. True, this is a different animal, and a smaller one. OEMing is the most rational course for a small firm to pursue and does not preclude direct selling. On one hand you mention that YURI doesn't have an enterprise product, which means OEM is the obvious and best choice, and the other you criticize the emphasis on OEMs.
5. "LU is OEMing a number of access products - not just YURI's." I think you're dead wrong on this one. I understand ADCT lost this OEM to YURI. Please provide me with a contact person at LU who can support your assertion. I'd be glad to call.
6. "Splitrock. seems like a shell game to provide more comfort to investors." We've all heard you say this ad infinitum. You have gone out of your way, including distorting numbers, to hammer this issue. Shipments from YURI to BAY and ERICY that are destined to Splitrock are counted as Splitrock sales. YURI is hiding nothing. I suggest you ask YURI directly about this issue, because your suggestion of fraud is speculative and doesn't appear to be researched.
Flame on Brother,
Hugh |
