Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (4719)	3/11/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Nevada	Read Replies (1) of 18691

I read an academic article a while back (couldn't find it this morning) that pertains to your (our) dilemma. It said that investment trends, regardless of the untenability of the underlying reasoning, can last for decades. The greater fool market that we are in works fine and reinforces the actions of the greater fools as long as there is one more. Intrinsic valuation (price is equal to the NPV of the future cash flows) works best in the very long run but we may all be dead before that last fool enters the last buy order. Luckily the musical chair game stops for individual stocks as well as markets. This hopefully allows us to break even or even make a small profit until the big music stops. And do not forget that it is those fools that allow us to earn our money. Hard eraned money it is too.

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